FROM DISEASE and downturn to the deterioration in Chinese-American relations, there has been no let-up to the blows battering the world’s trading system. The latest threat stems from the possibility of another global recession. Only two years after the world sank into a covid-induced slump, shipping bosses are again warning of grim prospects for international trade.

Even beyond the ups and downs of the economic cycle, deeper shifts in global trade are taking place. Firms are reconsidering their production decisions, and governments are pushing the process along. Such shifts might have seemed outlandish in 2018 when Donald Trump, then America’s president, first slapped tariffs on imported Chinese goods. Since then, a pandemic has struck, and President Joe Biden has banned the export of advanced semiconductor technology to China and plans to provide subsidies worth hundreds of billions of dollars for investment in domestic manufacturing. A rejigging of trade now feels inevitable rather than unimaginable—and the outline of its new geography is becoming clearer.